Kanwaljit Kaur Gill
Economic growth and population growth have long been a topic of debate. Demographers believe that when development leads to improvements in basic infrastructure, health services, education, employment opportunities raise the general standard of living. As economic growth takes place, its positive impact is evident in the overall society and social values. The main factors affecting population growth, birth rate, death rate, total fertility rate, etc. begin to decline and finally fall to the natural minimum level. This is called the final stage of population growth. At this stage the rate of population growth begins to decline. Although India became the most populous country in the world (142 crore) after July 2024, the data also shows that the rate of population growth declined during the decade 1991-2001. After this, population growth in India is happening at a decreasing rate.
There is a direct correlation between population growth and family size. After independence, population growth during the period 1961-1981 was explosive. The policies made to control it were influenced by the socio-economic development model of Kerala and Punjab. Education, especially women’s increasing literacy rate and health facilities in Kerala led to smaller family sizes there. Punjab was among the most developed states as it ranked number one in terms of per capita income. Here too, family sizes started to get smaller. Keeping these models in mind, India’s population policy was formulated in 1976, in which two-three children per family were urged with emphasis on family planning. The 2002 population policy introduced a slogan of ‘Hum Do, Hamare Do’ per family, along with some other reforms. Due to continuous socio-economic development and population-related policies, the current average family size is four-five. Joint families are now rarely found where elderly parents also live together in the family. Modern technology is affecting every sphere of life to such an extent that social values, relationships, family relations are all in turmoil. Individualism and individualism are becoming dominant in the general lifestyle. During this phenomenon, some political parties and religious personalities make statements from time to time that there are more children in a particular community, they will weigh on all kinds of your finances, natural resources and culture; Therefore, you also beget more children; It deviates from the theory of socio-economic development and family size. A theory of family size and the factors influencing it refutes such rhetoric.
According to the National Family Health Survey-5, the total fertility rate, rural and urban, was 3.4 during 1992-93 to 2.0 during 2019-22; That is, 2-3 children were being born per family. Urbanization and modernization are pushing this trend to an alarming state. Fertility in urban areas is 1.6; That is, producing less than two children per couple. These figures are for the entire population of India; Not belonging to any particular religion, caste, race or community. Neither are they directly associated with any political party. Family size, education level/standard, health facilities, employment opportunities and urbanization are more dependent on income level. Hence, there is a need to keep the scales of counting persons secular and away from politics while formulating programs or policies for social welfare. Instead of how many people in a society or a region are Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists or any other religion, we can also say how many people there are super rich, super rich or rich, upper middle class. Income belongs to middle class income or lower middle class income category. After that, how many poor, very poor and extreme poor are there; That is, instead of politics of religion, if the income level is made the scale, then we can correctly identify the beneficiaries of Ata-Dal scheme, Shagan scheme, free electricity, water or education, health facilities.
Along with development, social and cultural changes also occur rapidly. Factors affecting family size also change with these. The gap in literacy rate between men and women is decreasing. Women are starting to work at par with men in every field of employment. Although she faces many challenges to prove equal efficiency and performance in tasks outside the home, she still strives to balance family responsibilities and work duties. A small family is not only a choice of a working woman, but also a necessity. Along with the decline in population growth rate, its composition and age group are also changing. A decline in the birth rate has led to an increase in the number of young age groups in India, as well as an increase in the proportion of elderly persons above 60 years of age. It is estimated that there will be further changes in social phenomena related to population during the coming decades. On the one hand, increasing literacy rate, declining sex ratio, rising unemployment and urbanisation; On the other hand, increasing individualism, individualism etc. are affecting social relations and family relations in a new way. The younger generation is concerned about their careers, marriages are taking place later than the appropriate age. Some people are rejecting marriage and prefer living together (live in relationship). Most of the young couples are reluctant to shoulder the moral responsibility of the family, they are starting to justify the family without children. This whole trend is going against the Indian social culture. In such a modern phenomenon, it does not seem right to see the size of the family in relation to religion, caste or any particular community.
According to the latest data from the National Family Health Survey (2019-22), 79.8% of India’s total population is Hindu, 14.2% Muslim, 2.3% Christian, 1.7% Sikh and the rest Buddhists, Jains or other religions. In 1951, Hindus constituted 84.1% of the total population and Muslims 14.2%; That is, the growth rate of people of both major religions has declined during 1951 to 2011. The total fertility rate fell from 3.3 to 2.1 among Hindus and from 4.4 to 2.6 among Muslims. This means that the difference in family size between the two religions is 0.5, or say, Hindus have 2 or 3 children and many Muslim families have an average of 3 children. In the same survey, it is recorded that the trend of having more than one wife is not only among Muslims, but also among Hindus. 1.3% of Hindu and 1.9% of Muslim families have more than one wife.
According to the Institute of Population Studies Mumbai’s 15-year research report from 2009 to 2024, about one crore Hindu families had more than one wife; The number of such families among Muslims was about 12 lakhs. 28 of India’s 35 states have a majority Hindu population. Thus, in any case, by 2047, the number of Muslims cannot even come close to the population of Hindus, nor will they be in a position to dominate the culture or customs. Therefore, under the influence of a biased or emotional mindset, urging people in political or religious gatherings to have more children is irrelevant and anti-democratic. This rhetoric clearly also has a negative impact on women’s empowerment. A woman lags three-four years behind a man in terms of employment during childbearing and child rearing. Her income is also affected and she is left behind economically.
So, finding a solution to any socio-economic problem from religion is not only illegitimate but also irrelevant. Population growth is related to family size. Family size is influenced by availability of health services, literacy rate, income level, employment, urbanization etc. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure the access of every citizen to the basic rights of these basic structural facilities and services. Constitutionally India is a secular country. It is the moral responsibility of the governments of the time to maintain its political ethics and culture. This is in the interest of the citizens of the country. Changing trends in population and family size need to be seen in this context.
*Professor (Retd.), Department of Economics, Punjabi University, Patiala.
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